javad taherpoor; teymor mohammadi; reza fardi
Abstract
In Economic literature, different dimensions of financial development have been scrutinized. In this regard, what is important about bank-based financial systems is the distribution of loans and credits among different economic sectors. Actually, in non-competitive markets characterized by imperfect ...
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In Economic literature, different dimensions of financial development have been scrutinized. In this regard, what is important about bank-based financial systems is the distribution of loans and credits among different economic sectors. Actually, in non-competitive markets characterized by imperfect and incomplete information, any sort of distribution of credits and loans which is based on profit maximization for banks will not necessarily result in maximizing the collective interests of a country and it can even have adverse effects for the whole society. With regard to the issue described, this paper aims to study the role of distribution of credits and loans among different sectors on economic growth in Iran. To achieve this goal, we have used and analyzed time series data for the period 1984 to 2015 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The findings of this paper show that the logarithmic coefficient of financial growth index (calculated as the ratio of total outstanding credits to GDP) is positive and significant in both short-term and long-term periods. This means that financial development plays a positive role in economic growth. On the other hand, the estimated coefficient for the ratio of loans allocated to production sectors to loans allocated to non-production sectors is also positive and significant in both short-term and long-term periods. This suggests that loans allocated to production sectors have a positive effect on economic growth. In fact, one can assert that although an increase in bank loans and credits (actually, the ratio of total outstanding loans and credits to GDP) has a positive effect on economic growth, the more these loans and credits are inclined towards production, the more the magnitude of economic growth being stimulated.
Mohammad Sayadi; Abbas Shakeri; Teymur Mohammadi; Javid Bahrami
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of oil revenue, productivity and money growth rate shocks on macroeconomic variables, in the context of a DSGE model with the consideration of features such as big size of government activities in the economy, inefficiency of government investment, ...
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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of oil revenue, productivity and money growth rate shocks on macroeconomic variables, in the context of a DSGE model with the consideration of features such as big size of government activities in the economy, inefficiency of government investment, the need to invest in development of infrastructures, and existence of “National Development Fund” (NDF) to support private sector investment. The research findings based on RBC model, show that oil revenue shock has increased the consumption, government spending (both current and capital expenditures) and has decreased inflation in short-run; although because the oil shock is transferred to demand side, this situation leads to increase of inflation in medium-term. Our results show that when the oil revenue increases, the resources of NDF and consequently the share of credit granted to private sector will be raised and this can promote private sector production. In addition, because of the structure of Iranian economy, the increase in oil revenue has little effect on growth and development of production in non-oil producing sectors. Furthermore, the research findings show that when the inefficiency of public investments decreases, the investment of oil revenues has more positive effects on private sector production as a crowding-in effect phenomenon. Likewise, each of productivity and monetary shocks in the model has the same results as the theoretical expectations.